Taaleem Holdings: A sizeable investment now needs to deliver

Established schools provide the foundation

Taaleem operates premium schools across Dubai and Abu Dhabi alongside government-school partnerships and a nursery investment. Its mature campuses provide a base of earnings and cash flow; newer schools have spare capacity but carry staffing and operating costs while enrolments build.

At the end of FY2026, its 14 premium campuses had 23,848 places and 18,572 pupils. Premium schools generated 85% of consolidated operating revenue and almost all group EBITDA. School-level prospects matter: location, curriculum, fees and reputation affect how quickly each campus can fill.

Expansion has a cost

Revenue rose to AED 1.31 billion in FY2026, but net profit fell to AED 127 million and net bank debt reached AED 1.24 billion. The construction programme creates capacity for future pupils, while weighing on current profitability and the balance sheet.

Harrow Dubai opened for the 2026/27 academic year, with Harrow Abu Dhabi and Dubai British School Ghaf Woods scheduled to follow. Our forecasts include the announced programme, rather than assuming further unannounced campuses.

What we expect as the schools mature

We expect rising enrolments and lower construction spending to strengthen earnings and cash generation over time. Our school forecasts are built from individual campus assumptions, rather than applying a single growth rate to the whole portfolio.

Source: Taaleem Holdings and Evermore Research, 20 October 2026 initiation. Financial figures rounded; pupil counts are year-end figures. Forecasts are estimates, not management guidance.

Debt and Kids First Group need separate attention

We forecast net bank debt peaking at around AED 1.65 billion in FY2028 before declining to AED 1.39 billion in FY2030. Slower enrolment growth or higher spending could delay that improvement.

Taaleem also owns a 95% economic interest in Kids First Group, which operated 36 nurseries in the UAE and Qatar. Joint-control rights mean it is equity-accounted rather than consolidated into school revenue and EBITDA. We value that investment separately.

Our valuation

We initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation and fair value of AED 3.72 per share. Against the report’s AED 3.24 reference price on 20 October 2026, that implies 14.8% capital upside.

The investment case depends on the expanded school portfolio delivering stronger earnings and cash flow as campuses mature. Competition, enrolment, fees, school costs and debt remain important risks. The full report sets out our valuation assumptions and sensitivities.